mir.tikety.cz

Frequently asked questions

Q. Why do you write a blog?
A. It enables us to maintain our discipline and not make trades we can't defend. It has also made it possible to demonstrate that consistent profits similar to horse racing are possible with soccer trading.
Q. Why don't you provide more training?
A. The aim has never been to train everyone in trading the exchange markets and it would probably not be possible with a blog anyway. It could even be harmful (judging from our own losing days).
Q. Will you have another chat session?
A. Not in the near future. We don't make a profit every single day and there is a chance that we will have unwanted results on the day of the chat. The amounts involved could matter greatly to anyone losing with our suggestions, even if it is only a few dollars.

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 08.09.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Přidej komentář!

To Believe or Not to Believe

We all receive thousands of bits of information each day and filter them through our senses, therefore deciding what to believe. Believing requires having some knowledge on the subject so that you can decide whether the information is credible or not.

What does it really matter whether we believe in something or not? Believing perhaps gives the information some credibility for a little while but it certainly does not make incorrect information true. The information continues to be as incorrect as ever so we would need to look into what the supplier of information might gain from falsification.

There is certainly a lot to gain if you are actually selling something or wish to profit from your misinformation in some way. Another kind of gain could be boosting your ego but this would only help people with a pathological need for flattery.

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 07.09.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Přidej komentář!

Is It Luck?

How big a role does luck play in how much one wins? While no one can argue that you will be very rich indeed if you know the score of every game by luck, this is not likely to happen to any of us in our lifetime. Luck also tends to even out over the long run so we will all have lucky and unlucky periods. Considering that most of us have about the same amount of luck, how can we explain luck's role in our trading?

Having said that our luck will even out over the long term, there may be crucial periods of our life or our trading system when we are deciding how to proceed. Let's say we earn USD100.000 in five months with a particular system and the monthly profit is +30K, +20K, +20K, -15K and +45K respectively. Looking at the average profit of 20K or so, we could say months 4 and 5 have been affected by bad or good luck, assuming everything else was constant. However, the following series is very different than the first one: -15K, -15K. +45K, +45K, +40K. Although the end result is again +100K in 5 months, it is likely that the second trader would have gone bust at the end of the second month, if not sooner. The first trader could easily shrug off the -15K loss on the fourth month as he/she has made 70K until then and knows that his system is working. We could therefore call this positional luck. The same consideration applies to a big loss at the beginning of the trading day that can completely demoralize the trader whereas one that comes in the end is 'just one of those things'.

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 05.09.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Přidej komentář!

So you want to be a Pro

It must be many people's dream to give up their 9-to-5 job together with all it entails (getting dressed, daily commute, social niceties) and becoming a full-time trader, whether in the sports exchanges on one of the endless variations of the financial markets. Any trader who has ever won a few hundred euro must have contemplated a life of easy riches with just a few minutes spent in front of the computer and the rest of the day full of tennis or golf lessons, taking a dip at the nearest hotel pool and then dashing off to the newest restaurant in town.

Before you tell your boss what you really think of him/her and burn your bridges, it may be wise to consider the following regarding betting exchanges:

• Exchange trading is hard work. I repeat: IT IS HARD WORK.
• It is quite likely that any edge you think you may have after making profits for a few days in a row may not be present at all. It could be "pure luck" or just the way the ball bounced on those days. It could also be that the ball will start bouncing the other way as soon as you start full-time trading, even if you had a rightful advantage in the first place. Any edge you have can also easily be discovered and copied by other traders over time, cutting deep into your profits. Someone is bound to have the same idea as you sooner or later unless you have a fairly complicated system that is difficult to understand. Are you prepared for that day or is the world big enough for both of you?

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 04.09.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Přidej komentář!

The Over/Under market

The over/under market has attracted many traders in recent years and for good reason. Although there are now many variations in terms of the number of goals that set the over/under limit, most people still understand over or under 2.5 goals when they hear the phrase. So what's so special about this particular bet?

This bet can be very profitable if you are not sure about the numbers of goals to be scored by each team but you believe you know whether the match will have only a few goals or a lot of them. For some clubs with world-class strikers, it is very rare to have a goalless match while other teams seem to have a very hard time scoring at some stages during the season. Knowing the form of the teams' strikers not to mention the form of the goalkeepers and the defensive players, will always help.

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 03.09.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Přidej komentář!

Exchange Betting and The Living Market

Exchange betting is a relatively recent phenomenon but has captured the interest of milions. In a world of increasingly sophisticated computer equipment and communication, the chance to compete against others and not the bookie seems a dream come true.

When we go into any exchange betting site, we see a lot of numbers for any competetion but what do these numbers mean and where do they come from? Betting exchanges are open to anyone who wants to specify odds. However, considering that some of the rates provided on betting exchanges have been put there by bookies anyway, it would be wise to take into account these numbers derived from statistical evaluations of past games and the current mood of customers as they are judge it.

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 02.09.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Přidej komentář!

The psychology of losing

Assuming most punters are in this game to win, it's no wonder losses hurt so much. Losses are the instances where we need to look deep into ourselves and accept that there is something wrong with the game plan we developed after hours of intense thinking, that all may not be well. And losses will come, as surely as death and taxes. It's what we do with them that's important.

First of all, I really do not believe everyone is in this game to win. There are some of us who like losing for whatever reason, and actually feel better after losing than winning. Perhaps they do not want to win from this sort of activity or they fell they are paying for other sins.

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 30.08.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Přidej komentář!

You are welcome.
I decided to publish rediscovered commentaries by Psychoff - football bettor and trader.

What do all the numbers mean?

Once you open any Betfair market on your computer screen, you will see prices for backing and laying the current position but what can they possibly mean? Is 1.01 better than 1.02? Why do we get 1000 all of a sudden? And why are the back and lay numbers very close in some markets and far apart in others?

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 28.08.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Komentáře: 2 [30.08.10 01:00]

Trading je módní slovo. Módní až to není hezké!!

Moderní způsoby sázení umožňují vést sázky mnoha různými způsoby. Jednotlivá SÁZKA je vždy základním stavebním kamenem. A to jak pro "obyčejné sázky" např. na zápas, tak i trading. Jenže dneska je všechno tak hektická multimediální zábava, že se rozdíly snad i záměrně stírají. Čím je (podle mě) TRADING typický?

• o výsledku tradingu NEROZHODUJE výsledek zápasu či dostihu
• nerozhoduje ANI průběžný výsledek zápasu či dostihu
• na 99,9% nemá objekt obchodování na výsledek tradingu žádný vliv (vyjma např. odstoupení koně ze závodu a podobných událostí, které jakýsi vliv na průběh obchodování mají, ale dlouhodobě naprosto zanedbatelný)
• z výše uvedeného vyplývá, že na ŽÁDNÉM LIVE zápasu nelze čistě tradovat!

Trading je disciplína, ke které nepotřebujete znát o sportu naprosto vůbec nic! Stačí znát technologii obchodování (principy, technické prostředky ..) a obchodní partnery! Tenista co právě zkazil podání, kůň co nepřeskočil překážku nebo fotbalista co si dal vlastní gól NENÍ traderův OBCHODNÍ PARTNER!

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 24.08.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Komentář: 1 [25.08.10 06:55]

Na konci března Betfair zkoušel vylepšený algoritmus pro uzavírání sázek na vybraných horse racing trzích. Při uzavírání sázek na webovém rozhraní se aplikoval tzv. cross-matching. O co přesně jde?

Pro co nejjednodušší vysvětlení uvedu příklad z trhu, kde se sází pouze na 2 příležitosti, např. tenis (tenis sice aktivně netrejduji, ale podle všeho tam cross-matching už běžně funguje.)

Takže ve stručnosti:
... jde o to, že sázka umístěná na výhru jednoho hráče se zároveň objeví i na prohru druhého hráče (a samozřejmě naopak, výhra druhého je fakticky prohra prvního).

Obrázek za tisíc slov. Dal jsem si s ním práci proto, aby přesně ilustroval o čem je řeč. V první řadě jde jasně poznat, že nejde o souvislosti na "jednom výběru", jedné selection. Např. na selection "David" není vůbec důležité, že Back je na 1.04 a Lay je na 1.50 ...
Cross-matching je o vztahu mezi jednotlivými Selections. David Back 1.04 €72 = Tomas´s Lay 26 €2 (není to úplně přesné, Betfair dopočítávané nabídky zaokrouhluje na celá čísla dolů). Se stejnou analogií dojdete k závěru, že Tomas Back 3.00 €38 = David Lay 1.50 €77, jinými slovy: za aktuálního stavu na trhu mohu Backovat Tomase nebo Layovat Davida a výsledek bude stejný. V čem tedy spočívá vtip zavádění "cross-matchingu"?

pokračování ...

napsal: Mir - 11.05.2010 - kategorie: Trading - Přidej komentář!